UN: Kenya and Ethiopia to drive Africa’s economic growth in 2026

Kenya Ethiopia growth will be a key engine of Africa’s economic expansion in 2026, according to a new United Nations outlook that puts the continent’s performance on a firmer footing despite global headwinds. The UN projects Africa’s output to rise by about 4.0% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, with East Africa leading the pack.

Kenya Ethiopia growth to lead East Africa

East Africa is forecast to grow by 5.8% in 2026, the strongest pace among Africa’s sub-regions. The UN attributes that outperformance to the region’s deeper integration and expanding renewable energy, with Ethiopia and Kenya singled out as key contributors to the acceleration. Kenya’s near-term momentum supports that view. Official data show GDP grew 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, up from 4.2% a year earlier, as agriculture and construction rebounded.

What the UN’s 2026 outlook says

Globally, the UN’s “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026” sees growth easing slightly to 2.7% this year before a mild pickup in 2027. The report highlights persistent trade frictions, tighter fiscal space and lingering uncertainty, even as inflation cools and monetary policy eases. For Africa, the baseline is one of modest improvement, tempered by high debt burdens and climate shocks. The UN notes that stronger macroeconomic stability in several major African economies underpins the 2026 acceleration. However, it also flags constraints from limited fiscal room and elevated borrowing costs across many countries.

Regional outlook beyond East Africa

The UN sees a mixed picture across the continent’s sub-regions in 2026. North Africa is expected to grow around 4.1%, while West Africa is projected near 4.4%. Central Africa is forecast at roughly 3.0%, and Southern Africa near 2.0%, reflecting uneven recoveries and differing policy and commodity backdrops. Trade should remain resilient after a better-than-expected 2025, but implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area continues to advance unevenly, the UN says. External tariff changes and shifting trade patterns also pose challenges for some exporters.

Risks: debt, trade tensions and climate shocks

Debt vulnerabilities remain a central risk. The UN warns that limited fiscal space and higher servicing costs could crowd out development spending, even as several countries work through debt restructuring frameworks. Climate-related shocks continue to threaten agriculture-dependent economies, adding volatility to growth and prices. Global trade frictions have eased somewhat since 2025 but remain a drag on confidence. The UN’s baseline assumes no further broad escalation; a sharper turn in tariffs or financing conditions would weigh on Africa’s outlook.

Why Kenya and Ethiopia matter in 2026

Kenya and Ethiopia bring scale and momentum to East Africa’s forecast. Both are pushing infrastructure and energy investments that can lift productivity, while regional integration deepens market access. Kenya’s recent pickup in agriculture and construction adds cyclical support, and Ethiopia’s large domestic market continues to anchor regional demand.

The bottom line

Africa’s growth is set to improve in 2026, with East Africa out in front and Kenya and Ethiopia central to that story. The outlook remains constructive but fragile. Progress on debt sustainability, trade integration and climate resilience will determine whether the continent can turn a modest upswing into durable, inclusive growth