Ethiopia held a general election on Monday, but for millions of its citizens, the ballot box was never an option. Voting was suspended across parts of the Oromia and Amhara regions due to active insurgencies, while the entire Tigray region \u2014 home to an estimated six million people \u2014 was completely shut out of the process.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Electoral commission head Melatwork Hailu confirmed the suspensions. Out of more than 50,000 polling stations, 143 failed to open. The official line: security concerns. The reality: a country fracturing under the weight of its own conflicts.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed<\/strong>, in power since 2018, cast his vote and declared that Ethiopians need no outside guidance to build democracy. His Prosperity Party<\/strong> is expected to dominate the 547-seat parliament \u2014 just as it did in the 2021 election, when it won by a landslide.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n To form government, a party needs 274 seats. Abiy’s party will almost certainly clear that bar with room to spare. The opposition knows it. Some are only showing up to avoid being legally deregistered.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “We are participating symbolically because the law says you cannot boycott elections consecutively,” said Prof Merera Gurdina<\/strong>, a veteran opposition politician from the Oromo Federalist Congress. He called this election the least competitive in Ethiopia’s recent history. That is not a small claim.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Let’s be honest about who Abiy Ahmed is in 2025 \u2014 because it is a long way from who he was in 2018.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n When he first took office, Abiy released hundreds of political prisoners and journalists. He ended a 20-year military stalemate with Eritrea and won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize<\/strong>. The world applauded. Africa celebrated.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Then came the war in Tigray.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n In 2020, Abiy’s government launched a military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)<\/strong>. The two-year conflict killed an estimated 600,000 people<\/strong>, according to the African Union’s own mediator. It pushed the region to the edge of famine. It displaced millions.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Critics now accuse his government of suppressing dissent, forcing opponents into exile, and jailing political rivals. Reporters Without Borders<\/strong> ranked Ethiopia 148th out of 180 countries<\/strong> on its 2025 press freedom index. The BBC was denied press accreditation for this election. Three Reuters journalists had their credentials revoked in February.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Human Rights Watch<\/strong>, in a September 2025 report, condemned the government for arbitrarily arresting journalists and called for an end to harassment of independent media. This is not the biography of a democrat.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The security crisis is not abstract. In Amhara<\/strong>, Fano militias<\/strong> are fighting government forces. In Oromia<\/strong>, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)<\/strong> \u2014 designated a terrorist organisation by parliament \u2014 continues its armed campaign for greater autonomy for the country’s largest ethnic group.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n According to conflict monitoring group Acled<\/strong>, more than 9,400 people were killed<\/strong> in those two regions alone in 2024.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n In Amhara, 30 out of 137 constituencies cancelled voting entirely. The opposition Coalition for Ethiopian Unity<\/strong> says campaigning in both regions was impossible from the start.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “We have previously stated that we cannot campaign in the Amhara and Oromia regions because there are no enabling conditions,” said coalition secretary Mistreselasie Tamrat<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The government insists 97% of areas in those regions are election-ready. Nobody credible believes that number.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The situation in Tigray is the most dangerous story in this election \u2014 and it is being underreported.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n A peace deal signed in Pretoria in November 2022<\/strong> formally ended the civil war. But that deal is collapsing in real time. The TPLF, angered by Abiy’s unilateral reappointment of Tigray’s interim administration leader, has elected Debretsion Gebremichael<\/strong> \u2014 the man who led Tigray through the war \u2014 to take over the region.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The electoral board stripped the TPLF of its legal status after a dispute over party registration. The TPLF believes Abiy has broken key commitments in the Pretoria accord, particularly around territory. It wants back western Tigray<\/strong>, lost during the war, where around a million displaced people still live in makeshift camps.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Eritrea<\/strong> \u2014 which fought alongside Abiy’s government during the Tigray war \u2014 has turned. Relations have soured over Abiy’s push to secure Red Sea port access. There are now reports Eritrea is aligning itself with the TPLF. That is a geopolitical realignment with explosive consequences.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Magnus Taylor<\/strong>, Horn of Africa expert at the International Crisis Group, is direct: “There are various internal insecurity issues, insurgencies and a risk of a new war in the north. The two things can exist at the same time.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n More than 50.5 million people<\/strong> registered to vote. Many of them are young, first-time voters who simply want stability \u2014 the same thing young Kenyans wanted after our own cycles of post-election violence.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “If the outcome of the election is not positive, I think it will affect my daily life economically and politically. If instability arises, I may not be able to continue my education and it could be harder to move around,” said Fenet Dereje<\/strong>, a young Addis Ababa resident.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n That fear is rational. Ethiopia’s GDP per capita is projected to reach $1,133 by 2026<\/strong>, up from $641 in 2016 \u2014 real economic progress. Abiy’s urban development projects in Addis Ababa are visible and significant. The IMF and World Bank back his economic reforms, conditional on currency market liberalisation and debt management. Ethiopia’s debt stood at $36.5 billion<\/strong> in 2024.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n But economic growth means nothing if the country slides back into war. And right now, that risk is real.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta<\/strong>, observing the election for the African Union, told reporters the vote was progressing smoothly. That is the kind of statement that deserves scrutiny, not applause.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n An election where an entire region is excluded, where opposition parties participate only to avoid deregistration, where journalists are denied accreditation, and where thousands of polling stations operate under active insurgency \u2014 that is not a smooth election. That is a managed outcome dressed in democratic clothing.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Deputy Prime Minister Temesgen Tiruneh<\/strong> said the ruling party “did not want to win everything” this time. He said they want opposition voices in government. These are the right words. Whether they reflect reality will only become clear after the results are announced.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n For now, Ethiopia votes. But not everyone gets to. And the next war may already be loading.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A Election Built on Exclusion Ethiopia held a general election on Monday, but for millions of its citizens, the ballot box was never an option. Voting was suspended across parts of the Oromia and Amhara regions due to active insurgencies, while the entire Tigray region \u2014 home to an estimated six million people \u2014 was […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3888,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trending","category-world"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"\nFrom Nobel Peace Prize to War Criminal Allegations<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Two Insurgencies, Thousands Dead, Votes Cancelled<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Tigray Is a Powder Keg<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
What Young Ethiopians Are Actually Facing<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Kenya’s Kenyatta Is Watching \u2014 But Is Anyone Else?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n